Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Forecast for Today and other possible events of note.

Hi all!

We may finally be looking at some thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow here in Eastern Nebrasaka. Hoping for even just a few thundershowers as I'd like to shoot some lightning with the new camera. Looking at 1400z Surface obs the cold front is clearly defined as winds behind it are veering to the Northwest with temperatures in the low to mid 50's. The boundary is oriented along a line from Le Mars, IA to Tekameh, NE to Hebron, NE to Great Bend, KS. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the lower 60's with dewpoints in the lower to mid 40's. As the front stalls near the Kansas/ Nebraska border region and Northwestern Missouri tonight a strong low level jet with overrun the front and provide the focus for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This low level jet will form ahead of an area of low pressure moving along the stalled frontal boundary, it currently resides in the Oklahoma panhadle region along the Oklahoma/ Kansas border. However models have been overforecasting moisture return and this is leading to higher CAPE values than what will actually be realized, the 12z GFS shows MLCAPE in Southern Nebraska around 1000 j/kg but fairly low lapse rates, thus it will be hard for updrafts to sustain themselves given the lack of bouancy and the meager instability.

Looking into the future , The GFS also looks interesting for 00z on Wednesday Apr 23rd. It shows a 994 mb Low in Southwest Kansas with temperatures in the 70's and 80's and dewpoints in the lower 60's. QPF signals are shown in Central Oklahoma with another area in Eastern and Northeastern Kansas. The model also generates between 1500 j/kg and 2000 j/kg of surface based CAPE with LI's around -6. We will have to iron out the details as this event draws nearer with exact locations of surface boundaries and intensity but at this point it appears the stage could be set for our first real spring time severe weather event on the plains!

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