Saturday, April 19, 2008

Thunderstorms Monday?

Hi All!

As of this typing its a late night at work looking over forecast models. Starting to get excited at the first real possibility of convection on Monday (04/21) here in Nebraska. While the better tornado/ severe weather threat lies well south in the Red River Valley region of OK and TX things are starting to look a little bit better for a shot at thunderstorms.

First of the WRF has a pretty strong 45kt 850 mb jet screaming into the region ahead of a stationary boundary/ coldfront and bringing with it the first true Gulf moisture of the season. A tounge of moisture extends just into the Southern tip of SD, emcompassing Eastern NE and points south across KS/MO/OK/ and TX. It also shows temperatures in the low to mid 70's and dewpoints in the lower 50's.

The GFS is a bit more moist. Especially at 850mb. It generates an LI of -2 in the KS/ NE border region south of Beatrice, NE at 00z on Monday. With a narrow tounge of CAPE.

NGM is a little farther north with energy across the northern plains., and also subtantsially drier/ more cutoff.

Either way if I wasn't working my Nebraska target would be south and west of Beatrice, although the real potential lies in the Red River Valley.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Forecast for Today and other possible events of note.

Hi all!

We may finally be looking at some thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow here in Eastern Nebrasaka. Hoping for even just a few thundershowers as I'd like to shoot some lightning with the new camera. Looking at 1400z Surface obs the cold front is clearly defined as winds behind it are veering to the Northwest with temperatures in the low to mid 50's. The boundary is oriented along a line from Le Mars, IA to Tekameh, NE to Hebron, NE to Great Bend, KS. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the lower 60's with dewpoints in the lower to mid 40's. As the front stalls near the Kansas/ Nebraska border region and Northwestern Missouri tonight a strong low level jet with overrun the front and provide the focus for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This low level jet will form ahead of an area of low pressure moving along the stalled frontal boundary, it currently resides in the Oklahoma panhadle region along the Oklahoma/ Kansas border. However models have been overforecasting moisture return and this is leading to higher CAPE values than what will actually be realized, the 12z GFS shows MLCAPE in Southern Nebraska around 1000 j/kg but fairly low lapse rates, thus it will be hard for updrafts to sustain themselves given the lack of bouancy and the meager instability.

Looking into the future , The GFS also looks interesting for 00z on Wednesday Apr 23rd. It shows a 994 mb Low in Southwest Kansas with temperatures in the 70's and 80's and dewpoints in the lower 60's. QPF signals are shown in Central Oklahoma with another area in Eastern and Northeastern Kansas. The model also generates between 1500 j/kg and 2000 j/kg of surface based CAPE with LI's around -6. We will have to iron out the details as this event draws nearer with exact locations of surface boundaries and intensity but at this point it appears the stage could be set for our first real spring time severe weather event on the plains!

Monday, April 14, 2008

First Post

Another manic (ha) Sunday night at work. I have just been glancing through stormtrack today and thought it would be a good idea to start one of these up in time for chase season. I guess its just a whole lot easier than building a site with the limited time that I have or would like to devote to it. I just picked up a new Canon Rebel XTi having having the digial rebel for about 4 and 1/2 years now. I had to get the battery grip just to make it feel sturdier and larger in my hands though. I'm looking forward to getting out and trying to get some new shots with it here within the next couple of days.

Anyone who wants to check out my existing stuff can click here.

Let me know what you think.

Weather doesn't look anywhere near interesting until the 20th-22nd time frame. The models want to try to bring a system out over the central plains with a wide open gulf and plenty of moisture. This could signal the spring season and finally bring a shift north for thunderstorms and precip other than stratiform rain and snow. After this long winter I am pretty excited for it but with it still being a week out we will just wait and see.